Fertility rate calculations are generally simplified by two standard assumptions. First, it is assumed that each woman's fertility follows general age-specific fertility trends throughout her childbearing years (with a peak in her early 30s). Second, it is assumed that all women will live through these childbearing years (from 15 to 44 years, or in some cases from 15 to 49 years). Another important point to remember is that the fertility rate is a theoretical number based on actual data, but it is not actual data itself. Put another way, the fertility rate is not an exact count of the number of children a woman living in a given country has at any given time. Instead, it is the calculated average number of offspring that a woman in this country is likely to have in her lifetime. This is also known as the "total fertility rate."
Ups and downs in fertility rates
RespectivelyBumpAccording to bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4 children per woman. This rate is approximately half that of 1950 (4.7).economically developed countriesasAustralia, mostEuropa, YSouth Korea, tend to have lower rates than less developed countries orlow income countries. Three main factors are blamed for falling global fertility rates: fewer child deaths, better access to contraception, and more women getting an education and trying to develop their careers before, and sometimes instead of, starting families.
The population replacement rate, which is the fertility rate necessary to maintain the population of a society, is 2.1 children per woman. Countries with fertility rates below this number may experience a general aging of the population and a decline in population size over time. Lower fertility rates and consequent population decline can be considered beneficial in some countries, particularly overcrowded countries, as they reduce pressure on infrastructure and social programs. However, lower fertility rates can also create challenges such as: B. a workforce that lacks the new workers it needs to replace those who retire, or too few paying workers in welfare programs (such as the Social Security in the US) that support retirees who are unable to work or are retired.
Top 10 countries with the highest fertility rates (by births per woman) – World Bank 2021 (2019 data)
- Niger- 6.8
- Somalia- 6,0
- Congo (Dem. Rep.) - 5.8 (tie)
- Little ones- 5.8 (tie)
- Chad- 5.6
- angola- 5.4
- Burundi- 5.3 (tie)
- Nigeria- 5.3 (tie)
- Gambia- 5.2
- Burkina Faso- 5.1
Top 15 Countries with the Lowest Fertility Rates (by births per woman) – World Bank 2021 (2019 data)
- South Korea - 0.9
- Puerto Rico(US Territory) - 1.0
- Hong Kong(PorcelainSAR) - 1.1 (empath)
- Malta- 1.1 (tie)
- Singapore- 1.1 (tie)
- Macao (RPC) - 1,2 (empate)
- Ukraine- 1.2 (tie)
- spain- 1.2 (tie)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.3 (tie)
- San Marino- 1.3 (tie)
- Moldavia- 1.3 (tie)
- Italia- 1.3 (tie)
- Andorra- 1.3 (tie)
- Cyprus- 1.3 (tie)
- Luxembourg- 1.3 (tie)
fertility rates inAfrica
The vast majority of countries with the highest fertility rates are in Africa. Together they are the countries ofAfrica south of the Saharathey have the highest average fertility rate in the world at 4.6. Niger tops the list with 6.8 children per woman, followed by Somalia with 6.0, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.8), Mali (5.8) and Chad (5.6).
The North African countryTunisiait has the lowest fertility rate on the continent with 2.2 children per woman. But even this lower rate in Africa is roughly in the middle of the global list of more than two hundred countries and territories. Regarding the countries with thehighest birth rate, Niger is once again the highest in the world with 46 births per 1000 inhabitants in 2019.
According to an article published by the UN, the high rates in Africa can be attributed to low contraceptive use, early and universal marriage, high fertility rates, preterm birth, childbirth during much of a woman's reproductive life. and the high social value attached to it. the birth of children. While it is true that many African countries are experiencing declining fertility rates (for example, Nigeria's fertility rate fell from 6.35 in 1960 to 5.3 in 2019), these declines reflect a global trend rather than of a regional trend.
fertility rates inAsia
South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world at 0.9 children per woman, closely followed by South Korea.Puerto Ricoat 1.0 and a trio from Malta, Singapore and Hong Kong SAR, all at 1.1 children per woman.
The two most populous countries in the world, China (1.7) andAnd(2.2) have fertility rates in the lower middle part of the scale. Both numbers are influenced by government policies and cultural expectations regarding reproduction in those countries. China, for example, claimed a"One Child Policy"from about 1980 to 2016, but a law was officially passed in August 2021 stating that married couples can have up to three children.
AfghanistanIn the 1990s, the fertility rate was one of the highest in the world, around 8.0. The country's current birth rate is 4.5. This decline is attributed to more Afghan women getting an education and finding jobs. After the Taliban was driven out of Afghanistan, NATO countries provided help to finance schools, family planning services, and birth control. The infant mortality rate has also dropped dramatically. The impact that the country's takeover from the Taliban in 2021 could have on these gains, as well as on fertility rates, will take a few years to determine.
At 3.5,PakistanThe fertility rate is far from the highest, but given the country's limited resources and underdeveloped infrastructure, its rapidly growing population remains a cause for concern. Too fast population growth is overwhelming schools, clinics and poor communities across the country. Population growth in Pakistan is generally attributed to a lack of family planning and birth control, among other religious and political influences.
Fertility rates in Europe
The general fertility rate in Europe is relatively low, with no countries above 2.0, and it has been declining in recent years, which, as mentioned, is a global trend. This trend is attributed to several factors, including socioeconomic incentives to delay childbirth, a decline in the desired number of children, lack of child care, and changes in gender roles.
The highest fertility rate in Europe is one of themFranceon 1.9. However, this rate is still below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. France prides itself on having the highest fertility rates in Europe. The slow decline rate is a concern for the country and the government has prioritized plans to foster a larger number of families.
In Italy, which is currently at 1.3, the falling birth rate is also cause for concern. The median age of primiparous women in Italy is 31 years, the highest in Europe. One of the main reasons women in Italy do not have children before is that they are not financially prepared to raise a child and the government does not provide assistance with childcare costs. This low fertility rate combined with increased life expectancy has resulted in Italy having a significantly larger population (oneMiddle Ages45.9 years compared to the European median of 42.8 years).
Norwayis another European country with declining fertility rates of 1.5 children per woman in 2019. A major factor in Norway's fertility rate is the increasing age of first-time mothers, which averages 29.5 years. In addition, there are fewer large families. The Norwegian government is exploring ways to encourage childbirth, such as paying a mother in the form of pension savings for each child born.
What will birth rates be in 2023? ›
In CBO's projections, the total fertility rate remains at 1.66 births per woman through 2023 and then rises as fertility rates among women ages 30 to 49 increase. By 2030, the fertility rate is projected to be 1.75 births per woman, where it remains through 2053.What is total fertility rate answer? ›
The total fertility rate is the sum of the age-specific fertility rates for all women multiplied by five. The age-specific fertility rates are those for the seven five-year age groups from 15–19 to 45–49.How can you complete total fertility rate? ›
Total fertility rate is directly calculated as the sum of age-specific fertility rates (usually referring to women aged 15 to 49 years), or five times the sum if data are given in five-year age groups.Is total fertility rate increasing or decreasing? ›
As of 2020, the total fertility rate for the world is 2.3. Global TFR has declined rapidly since the 1960s, and some forecasters like Sanjeev Sanyal argue that the effective global fertility rate will fall below replacement rate, estimated to be 2.3, in the 2020s.Is the US birth rate declining? ›
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But during the Great Recession, from 2007-2009, birth rates declined sharply – and they've kept falling. In 2007, average birth rates were right around 2 children per woman. By 2021, levels had dropped more than 20%, close to the lowest level in a century.
Jan. 10, 2023, at 8:09 a.m. TUESDAY, Jan. 10, 2023 (HealthDay News) -- Continuing a decades-long trend, the percentage of American women who've ever had a child declined again in the latest figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.What is a good total fertility rate? ›
Assuming no net migration and unchanged mortality, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman ensures a broadly stable population.Why is TFR decreasing? ›
Lower Child Mortality
Historically, high child mortality — including infant deaths and deaths by early childhood illnesses — kept population growth low and fertility rates high. As child mortality rates have declined (dramatically in some countries) fertility rates have fallen.
The general fertility rate in 2021 was 56.3 births per 1,000 women in the 15 to 44-year-old age range, a 1 percent increase over 2020 numbers. This is the first increase since 2014, according to the report, and follows years of declines, including a recent 4 percent drop between 2019 and 2020.Why is 2.1 the replacement fertility level? ›
Assuming there are no migration flows and that mortality rates remain unchanged, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman generates broad stability of population: it is also referred to as the “replacement fertility rate”, as it ensures replacement of the woman and her partner with another 0.1 children per ...
What country has the lowest TFR? ›
South Korea has the lowest fertility rate globally at 0.9 children per woman, closely followed by Puerto Rico at 1.0 and a trio of Malta, Singapore, and the Chinese Special Administrative Region Hong Kong all at 1.1 children per woman.Is the world's population declining? ›
The global growth rate in absolute numbers accelerated to a peak of 92.8 million in 1990, but declined to 80.0 million in 2019. Long-term projections indicate that the growth rate of the human population of this planet will continue to decline and that before the end of the 21st century, it will reach zero.Is the global birth rate declining? ›
Globally, the fertility rate has not “collapsed,” nor should it, according to the UN, but it has dropped significantly. In 1950, women typically had five births each; globally, last year, it was 2.3 births. By 2050, the UN projects a further global decline to 2.1 births per woman.Is declining fertility rate good? ›
Lower fertility rates can be viewed as both a cause and consequence of economic development. Lower fertility impacts women's education positively, which in turn lowers the fertility of the next generations. With better infrastructure development, better health care, and education, fertility drops and income rises.Why is America's birth rate so low? ›
Casual observers have suggested that a variety of potential factors are responsible for the decline, including greater take-up of highly effective contraception, the high cost of raising children, improved occupational opportunities for women, and the high level of student debt carried by young adults.How many babies can a woman have in her lifetime? ›
One study estimated a woman can have around 15-30 children in a lifetime, taking pregnancy and recovery time into account. Since men require less time and fewer resources to have kids, the most "prolific" fathers today can have up to about 200 children.Is China's birth rate declining? ›
China's population has fallen for the first time in 60 years, with the national birth rate hitting a record low - 6.77 births per 1,000 people. The population in 2022 - 1.4118 billion - fell by 850,000 from 2021. China's birth rate has been declining for years, prompting a slew of policies to try to slow the trend.When did the US birth rate start declining? ›
Fertility's steady decline
Changing societal norms and other factors have reshaped recent generations of American families. Following the baby boom from 1946 to 1964, birth rates plummeted through the early 1970s, then fluctuated little in succeeding decades.
Experts point to several factors behind the low birth rate. The country's high cost of living, limited space and lack of child care support in cities make it difficult to raise children, meaning fewer couples are having kids. Urban couples are also often far from extended family who could help provide support.What age does fertility decline? ›
A woman's peak reproductive years are between the late teens and late 20s. By age 30, fertility (the ability to get pregnant) starts to decline. This decline happens faster once you reach your mid-30s. By 45, fertility has declined so much that getting pregnant naturally is unlikely.
What is the projected fertility rate in the US? ›
In CBO's projections, the total fertility rate falls to 1.60 births per woman in 2021, rises to 1.75 births per woman in 2030, and remains at that value thereafter.Does poverty increase TFR? ›
In general, poor countries tend to have higher levels of fertility than rich countries. In particular, women tend to give birth to no fewer than three children in countries where GDP per capita is below $1,000 per year.How do you fix declining birth rate? ›
Women's labor force participation is key to offset population declines. Women's labor force participation is key to counterbalance falling birth rates. In fact, increasing the economic potential of half the world's population ushers in benefits for the entire economy, not only women.Is fertility getting worse? ›
Infertility rates are rising, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). There used to be a worldwide average of 5 children per woman in 1950, but in 2020, that average has fallen to 2 children according to the United Nations.Is sperm count declining? ›
In the last 50 years, average human sperm concentrations dropped by 51.6 percent, and total sperm counts dropped by 62.3 percent, according to a study published last week in the journal Human Reproduction Update. The researchers conducted a meta-analysis of 223 papers published between 1973 and 2018.Is high fertility rate good? ›
High fertility rates can have an adverse effect on the health of women and children, especially in developing countries that lack a health infrastructure.What is the U.S. fertility rate 2022? ›
The fertility rate for U.S. in 2022 was 1.782 births per woman, a 0.06% increase from 2021. The fertility rate for U.S. in 2021 was 1.781 births per woman, a 0.11% increase from 2020.What is 2.2 fertility rate? ›
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) which is measured as the average number of children per woman, has come down from 2.2 to 2.0 at the national level between NFHS-4 and 5.What is the CIA fertility rate? ›
4.6 children born/woman (2022 est.)Is the population of Russia decreasing? ›
Russia, the largest country in the world by area, had a population of 147.2 million according to the 2021 census, or 144.7 million when excluding Crimea and Sevastopol, up from 142.8 million in the 2010 census.
Is women's fertility decreasing? ›
The analysis, which looked at Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics data, shows fertility rates of women ages 20-24 declined by 43%, while those of women ages 35-39 increased by 67% during the roughly 30-year period.Why is Korean fertility so low? ›
In the 1960s, the South Korean government launched programmes to curb fertility, encouraging the use of contraceptives and promoting a two-child norm. Consequently, South Korea's total fertility rate declined rapidly between 1960 and 1985, from 6.1 to 1.7 children per woman.Why is Europe's fertility rate so low? ›
Several factors are thought to be driving that decline in Western Europe: socioeconomic incentives to delay childbearing; a decline in the desired number of children; and institutional factors, such as labor market rigidities, lack of child care, and changing gender roles.How many babies are born a day? ›
About 385,000 babies are born each day according to the UN. That adds up to more than 140 million a year. The 140 million extra babies per year join a world population projected to reach 10 billion people by 2056.What is the maximum population the Earth can sustain? ›
It may be a slow process – if we reach 10.4 billion, the UN expects the population to remain at this level for – but eventually after this the population is projected to decline.How many people can Earth support? ›
Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people. [ How Do You Count 7 Billion People?] One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources.
Moreover, he suggests that human numbers have already passed the long-term capacity of the Earth to sustain us and that an optimum world population lies perhaps in the range of 2 to 3 billion.What is the US birth rate by race? ›
Retrieved February 27, 2023, from www.marchofdimes.org/peristats. Of all live births in the United States during 2018-2020 (average), 23.7% were Hispanic, 52.1% were white, 15.2% were black, 0.8% were American Indian/Alaska Native and 6.8% were Asian/Pacific Islander.Are we overpopulated or underpopulated? ›
Researchers expect the US to face underpopulation, blaming a falling birth rate and economic crises. Every 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate reduces births by 1 percent, according to Wellesley College economics professor Phil Levine.Is the human population increasing or decreasing? ›
Our growing population
The world's population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.
Why does Italy have a low birth rate? ›
One reason often cited for the birth dearth is a lack of job security and affordable child care. Pensions absorb most of Italy's welfare spending and the majority of new jobs are on temporary contracts that offer no financial stability.What will the US population be in 2023? ›
In CBO's projections, the U.S. population increases from 336 million people in 2023 to 373 million people in 2053. Population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth beginning in 2042.How many humans will there be in 2023? ›
The U.S. Census Bureau's International Database estimated that the world population reached 7.5 billion on April 16, 2017 and will reach 8 billion in 2023.What will be the birth rate in 2050? ›
The report finds that by 2050, global fertility is expected to be 2.2 births per woman, down from 2.5 today. This rate is inching closer to the replacement rate of 2.1—the number of births per woman needed to maintain a population's size.Is there a population decline? ›
Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.4 in 2019. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and is a result of a process known as demographic transition.In what year will humans be immortal? ›
Some researchers believe there's a limit on how long it's physically possible to live: perhaps 125 years. But what if we don't need our bodies at all? Some people, including famed futurist Ray Kurzweil, believe that by 2045, we might become immortal by uploading our brains into computers.In what year will humans be able to live forever? ›
This might seem like an over-ambitious venture but ongoing life extension research projects have registered promising results. If things continue in the same trajectory, the year 2050 has been projected to be the benchmark for when we will achieve immortality.What race is the largest in the world? ›
The world's largest nationality group is Chinese, with Mandarin being the world's most spoken language in terms of native speakers.What is the maximum population the earth can sustain? ›
It may be a slow process – if we reach 10.4 billion, the UN expects the population to remain at this level for – but eventually after this the population is projected to decline.Is the world's population slowing? ›
Here's One Reason Why. On November 15, 2022—as estimated by demographers—the count of humans on this planet reached eight billion. Population growth has been steady over the past few decades, with billion-person marks coming every dozen years or so.
What will the fertility rate be in 2030? ›
In CBO's projections, the total fertility rate falls to 1.60 births per woman in 2021, rises to 1.75 births per woman in 2030, and remains at that value thereafter.